We Have Met the Enemy, and It Is Us
Foreign affairs / USA
By Gideon Rose
One month into the Ukraine war, a broad consensus has formed among American commentators about why Russia has failed to achieve its goals. Trapped in an emotional and ideological bubble, the argument runs, Russian President Vladimir Putin made several basic strategic blunders. He convinced himself the war would be quick and easy, that foreign troops would be welcomed as liberators, that he could shock or crush any resistance, and that he would be able install a friendly local government to protect his interests once the fighting stopped. Soon after the invasion began, however, these fantasies ran into reality. Ukrainian forces stood up and Russian forces bogged down. And now an angry, wounded bear is stuck in a quagmire, lashing out in frustration instead of rationally reversing course.
The analysis appears sound, but the irony is rich—for the description of Putin’s mistakes is a decent summary of not just the earlier Soviet experience in Afghanistan but also much of U.S. national security policy over the last several decades, including the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Washington has repeatedly launched military interventions with extravagantly unrealistic expectations, overestimated its own capabilities and underestimated its opponents, believed it would be loved rather than hated, and thought it could put its favorites into office and then get away easily. And time and again, after running up against the same harsh realities as Putin, it has tried to bull its way forward before ultimately deciding to reverse course and withdraw.
Yes, American motives were nobler. Yes, American methods were less brutal (most of the time). Yes, there were many other differences between the conflicts. But on a strategic level, the broad similarities are striking. This means there are several important lessons to be learned from recent American military history—but only if that history is looked at from the enemy’s perspective, not Washington’s. Because it was the enemies who won.