Info (Czech Republic)
Pavel Havlicek
On October 13, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, issued an ultimatum to Alexander Lukashenko and his regime, demanding that he leave the presidency by October 25, release dozens of political prisoners, and stop violently suppressing the fundamental rights and democratic freedoms of his citizens. At that time, no one could have imagined that the opposition would have a political comeback. In a deep crisis that has been going on for 80 days, both sides of the conflict are pretty tired, and the bet on the ultimatum, which again mobilized hundreds of thousands of people across the country, from the opposition, as it turned out, paid off. The scale of popular demonstrations is almost close to the August weekend, when protests began after rigged elections, brutal beatings and the arrest of thousands of peaceful demonstrators.
As the Belarusian political analyst Artyom shraibman reminds, the most important thing now is which of the parties (and the opposition forces and the Belarusian regime are almost equal) will be able to seize the initiative. Now it is on the side of the Belarusian opposition, led by the Coordinating Council and Tikhanovski. Schreibman sees this as a success and a step in the right direction that will pay off in the coming weeks. It is completely unknown how long the regime will be able to resist with the help of a nationwide strike, which the opposition announced after an unfulfilled ultimatum on Monday, October 26. By the way, according to available information, it was supported by many universities and most of the private sector. As for employees of large state-owned enterprises, not all of them joined. However, the very fact of such a popular outburst can be considered a convincing confirmation of the support of the opposition and its ability to mobilize the Belarusian society.
Lukashenko’s Prospects
The Lukashenka regime and its security forces have been preparing for such a situation for a long time and carefully, in order to silence the protesters in the most brutal way and preserve the work of the main state-owned enterprises. Nevertheless, Lukashenka failed to demonstrate that he is in full control of the situation and enjoys sufficient support from the population. For example, on Friday, on the eve of large-scale protests over the weekend, he canceled a Pro-regime demonstration at the last moment, which, according to estimates, would have been attended by ten to twenty thousand of his supporters “motivated” to participate in the action. The official reason was called concern for the health and safety of citizens. In fact, an opposition demonstration would simply overshadow his own. The regime thus had to resort again to repressive measures, including mass arrests, beatings of demonstrators, the use of rubber bullets and stun grenades, as well as further restrictions on fundamental rights and freedoms. The regime simply has nothing good to offer to prove its legitimacy, other than its dwindling finances and the loyalty it has won through intimidation in the past.
These problems will deepen in the coming weeks and months, when the Lukashenka regime will run out of money, including funds for payments on international loans and bonds, as well as for salaries of security forces and generally for the survival of the regime. At the same time, the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which covered Belarus with the second wave, will increasingly affect its economy. All these factors, as well as the distrust of international creditors and their own citizens, will paralyze the Belarusian regime through the economy and deprive it of the ability to take care of its own citizens and their welfare. Belarusians themselves will play a key role here. If they decide to mass boycott the products of state-owned enterprises, refuse to take money from banks and buy foreign currency, and resort to other means to economically paralyze the regime, they will contribute to its early collapse. This is what the Belarusian opposition hopes for, and it was with this scenario in mind that a nationwide strike was planned and the state’s functioning was disrupted in a peaceful way.
So far, the regime has tried to buy time and tire out the protesters by dispersing them or provoking them to violence recently, then using force against them, thereby discrediting and dividing their ranks. However, this tactic almost failed. Therefore, Lukashenka will have to do something else to save his regime. Yes, he split the opposition and lured part of it to his side, thereby creating the impression of disarray in its ranks, as well as the illusion of partial support for constitutional changes and the existence of a so-called political dialogue in the country. Nevertheless, this did not affect Belarusians and did not cause any response in society. On the contrary, the opposition’s tactics aimed at “depletion” of the regime, paralysis of the economy, delegitimization of the regime and its isolation on the world stage are bearing some fruit. In particular, the EU has imposed sanctions against Lukashenka and dozens of representatives of his regime, and many in the West would like to expand them further.
The struggle at the international level
For now, the Lukashenko regime can rely on the support of Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In recent months, he has repeatedly stood up for Alexander Lukashenko and confirmed his patronage. This was expressed both in sending Russian military instructors, journalistic staffs and other experts directly to Belarus, and in a number of accompanying steps that allowed Lukashenko to strengthen his position inside the country. In particular, these include several loans, joint military exercises, as well as meetings of political leaders and diplomatic support. Russia also supported Belarusian sanctions against the West, and included Tikhanovski in its own database search. On the other hand, recently, for example, Russian foreign Minister Lavrov has been increasingly criticizing the Belarusian authorities for illegal actions of law enforcement agencies, which indicates that the Russian approach is multi-vector and detached from the repressive actions of Lukashenko.
As for the EU, Lukashenko has faced harsh condemnation of his repressive practices and election fraud. Europe refused to cooperate with him in any form and turned its attention to Belarusian citizens, civil society and independent media, expressing its support for them. Europe and the West will continue to insist on a repeat of the presidential elections, a national dialogue and the inclusion of the Belarusian opposition, including the coordinating Council, in the internal political life of Belarus. And ideally – under the supervision of the OSCE. Further steps, including sanctions, can be expected in the case that the Lukashenko regime will dare to aggravate the situation. Then the West can move on to another wave of sanctions against key components of the Belarusian economy, the banking sector and state-owned enterprises, which again will bring the economic collapse of the Lukashenka regime closer.
Instead of a conclusion
The coming weeks will be crucial for the future of Belarus, as it is likely that the conflict between the regime and the opposition and the situation inside the country will escalate, as we have seen in recent weeks. The Czech Republic and Europe can play a positive role here if they correctly use the available foreign policy tools, including personal and economic sanctions, sufficiently large financial support for civil society and independent media, as well as all the possibilities of international organizations, including the OSCE and its Moscow mechanism, the UN and its human rights Council. By putting a lot of pressure on Lukashenka and offering an alternative to him, the West can promote positive changes and democratization of Belarus. However, the most important role will be played by Belarusians themselves and the internal relations between the opposition and the regime. In any case, we in the West must prepare and closely monitor what is happening so that events in Belarus do not take us by surprise. After all, the situation may develop rapidly in the very near future.