GLAVRED (Ukraine)
By Viktor Nebozhenko
The Kremlin arrogantly suggests that all States that are part of the zone of pressure and influence of Russia, defiantly learn, once and for all, the “Karabakh lesson of the Kremlin” — not to resist Russia and be friends only with it. Somehow, the Kremlin has moved from a strategy of soft power and economic dependence to a strategy of open blackmail as the main tool of foreign policy with the States of the former CIS
The essence of this strategy is to create insurmountable territorial conflicts without Russia for the States surrounding Russia, which endlessly weaken these countries and make them dependent on the Kremlin’s policies. In Ukraine, this is the Donbass and Crimea, in Georgia — Abkhazia, in Moldova-Transdniestria, in Armenia and Azerbaijan — this is Nagorno-Karabakh, which allows you to influence the behavior of two countries at once. Now Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are next in line. It will be even easier for the Kremlin to create regional conflicts there. And given the inefficiency of international bodies that regulate such conflicts, such as the UN security Council, Russia has every chance to surround itself with a chain of recalcitrant, but fundamentally weakened States — this will be Russia’s external security zone.
But here the Kremlin will face two problems. First, the method of hybrid wars and the creation of high tension in the conflict zone will also be used by countries stronger than Russia, primarily the United States and China. Secondly, the Kremlin’s problem is that these States that have fallen into the zone of the Kremlin’s geopolitical blackmail will always look for an ally that is either stronger than Russia — the United States or China, or will not be afraid of the Kremlin’s wrath — UK, Turkey and Iran.
For example, Turkey is already not afraid of Russia in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. Moreover, it is not only successfully increasing military and political cooperation with Ukraine, but, like Russia, claims Crimea as a peacekeeping force to protect the Crimean Tatar population from the Kremlin’s repressions. Turkey’s successful entry into the Caucasus has dramatically complicated Russia’s freedom of maneuver in a vast area-from Libya, Syria, and the Caucasus to Turkmenistan.
Turkey has also taught the whole world its own “Turkic lesson”. In fact, the most important lesson of the Karabakh tragedy is Turkey’s successful implementation of a powerful project to promote the “Turkic world” to the East. Just three years ago, it all started with Idlib in Syria, and today Turkey has already reached the Caspian sea. While Russia is stuck in a war with Ukraine for a long time in its project to expand the “Russian world”, other countries — Moldova, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, each in their own way, are trying to escape from the Kremlin’s iron embrace.
The United States and China can only wait patiently for the acute economic and domestic political crisis in Russia to weaken this iron grip, as it was already in the 90s of the last century.