Le Monde (France)
Isabelle Mandraud
On Monday morning, five minutes after the start of the agreed ceasefire, Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of violating the truce.
The wounded from Nagorno-Karabakh, mostly young people in their 20s, continue to arrive EN masse at the Erebuni hospital, one of the largest in Yerevan. “90% of cases are injuries to the hands and feet due to the use of cluster bombs, we have a lot of amputations,” says surgeon Mikayal Manukyan. Both intensive care units are full, and hundreds of beds are occupied throughout the hospital. Relatives with grim faces are waiting in the corridors. Some do not know anything about the fate of their loved ones
Four weeks into the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over control of this small Caucasus region with a predominantly Armenian population, blood is being shed on both sides. On October 24, the Ministry of defense of the unrecognized Republic (it receives the support of Armenia) estimated the losses at 920 soldiers whose identity was established. In fact, according to European and Russian sources, both camps are still unable to collect hundreds of bodies on the front line, as all attempts at a humanitarian truce have so far failed. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself announced the total number of 5,000 people. A terrible result of the confrontation that began less than a month ago.
“Humanitarian” truce
In any case, a “humanitarian” truce was supposed to start on Monday morning due to the joint statement of Armenia and Azerbaijan adopted on Sunday following three days of negotiations under the leadership of the United States: Secretary of state Mike Pompeo separately received the heads of diplomacy of both countries. They, in turn, published a joint press release about an agreement with representatives of the Minsk group (formed after the last war of 1992-1994 under the chairmanship of the United States, France and Russia) about a meeting in Geneva on October 29 to discuss “all the necessary stages to achieve a peaceful settlement”.
The new cessation of hostilities (many had doubts about it) was primarily requested by Armenia, which, apparently, has been reeling under the blows of the enemy in recent days. At 08:05 on Monday, five minutes after the ceasefire agreed by the parties came into force, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of violating the ceasefire. 40 minutes later, Yerevan, in turn, accused Baku of”gross violation”.
“We are talking about an all — out war on almost the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Sunday, as he received a delegation of 15 French parliamentarians in Yerevan. Although the Armenian forces offer stubborn resistance, their opponents have undisputed air superiority (in particular, thanks to the support of Turkey). Bayraktar TB2 combat drones spread fear among the Karabakh population, who are horrified by their sound. As a result, the region was deserted: 60% of the population, mostly women and children, fled to Armenia. Recently, Azerbaijani forces almost captured the Lachin corridor with the support of Syrian mercenaries sent by Turkey.
Now it is the only passage that connects Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh (it was opened after the Armenian victory in 1994). In 1997, another route was laid to the North, but it is now inaccessible due to fighting. If the passage was lost, the self-proclaimed Republic would be left without Yerevan’s military support and any supplies. At the moment, the Azerbaijani forces are only a few kilometers away. The Karabakh authorities publish a map where 2 of the 7 buffer zones around the NKR, captured by Armenia from Azerbaijan in 1994, came under the control of Baku’s forces. According to sources, the new target of the Azerbaijani army should be the city of Shushi (it was already subjected to massive shelling on October 8), the capture of which opens the way to the” capital ” of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert. In response, to raise the morale of the troops and tease the enemy, the Armenians showed footage of a wedding in a dilapidated Church in the city.
«new Hitler»
In the government meeting room, where French parliamentarians were invited, Nikol Pashinyan sharply criticized Turkish support for Baku: “only a third of military operations are conducted by Azerbaijanis. They have no idea about these machines (drones — ed.), which are controlled by Turkish specialists. Moreover, we have suspicions that they are doing this directly from Turkish territory!» During the conversation that lasted more than an hour, the Armenian Prime Minister became increasingly angry about Erdogan and even called him “the new Hitler”. “If he allows himself to speak in such a tone with the leader of a great country (an allusion to the Turkish leader’s statements about the” mental health ” of Emmanuel Macron-ed.), what prevents him from conducting the same policy in other places? We are dealing with an expansionist policy, and if it succeeds in the South Caucasus, it will move North and West! Its actions should be viewed in a broader context, in Syria, Greece, and Nagorno-Karabakh.”
“The Armenian people are not ready to capitulate, despite the losses,” Nikol Pashinyan said, emphasizing openness to a compromise that he publicly rejected three days earlier. As an example, he cited the Kazan agreements of 2011. The parties at that time intended to ratify the document, which provided for the return to Azerbaijan of the five buffer zones selected in 1994 in exchange for a guarantee of the interim status of Nagorno-Karabakh with subsequent recognition of its independence. At the last moment, the Azerbaijani side backed down, fearing, no doubt, extremely tense disputes and unrest within Azerbaijan. Today the situation is so acute that the hypothesis of separation of the enclave from the buffer zones is not excluded if Armenia manages to get guarantees of the inviolability of the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh and its security.
The fear that has gripped Yerevan (it is the first time it has faced the unthinkable scenario of losing Karabakh until recently) reflects the energy with which the Armenian authorities are trying to attract the attention of the international community, whose reaction so far has been rather sluggish (with a few exceptions). Even Russia, which is linked to Armenia by a defense agreement (it does not concern Nagorno-Karabakh), has so far shown an incomprehensible “neutrality”to Armenians. In this situation, the appearance of a large delegation of French parliamentarians in Yerevan did not go unnoticed in Baku. Adviser to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hadjiev condemned the “one-sided and biased visit”on Twitter. In addition, the news of the truce coincided with rumors about the sending of Turkish special forces trained in mountain warfare to Azerbaijan. These rumors are increasingly circulating in the Armenian capital, including among foreign diplomats.